With 6 rounds in the books, the league is beginning to shape up. Team owners are starting to be able to see what their fantasy team’s strengths and weaknesses are going to be. A good strategy in drafts can be to draft players with a high floor early and a high ceiling late. That being said, most leagues end up boiling down to the middle 6 or so rounds. That is where you build your team. Everyone gets a star early, but it’s who makes the smartest picks in the middle, the role players, that usually end up with bragging rights at next year’s draft. Let’s take a look at how rounds 4-6 turned out in our draft.
Round 4
Pick 31—Mike Fast
Wes Welker, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
Welker was the league leader in receptions (122), second in yards (1,569), 9 touchdowns. He’s an elite football player still in his prime and with something to prove after a big drop in Super Bowl XLVI. Welker and Gronkowski are still Brady’s top targets.
Pick 32—Dan Ross
Hakeem Nicks, Wide Receiver, New York Giants
Hakeem Nicks: 1200 yards, 9 touchdowns from the other half of Eli’s super WR duo. I was tempted to roll with Doug Martin but then I remembered I’ve never seen the guy play! I say no to these rookie runners, let somebody else pay 80 cents on the dollar if the guy pans out or want to quit fantasy football forever because he doesn’t. I’ll take a star, thanks. I’ve got QB2, WR7, RB9, and TE1 by my rankings. Loving. This. Team.
Pick 33—Andrew Bertram
Steve Smith, Wide Receiver, Carolina Panthers
Cam Newton went 5th overall, partially, because he set a rookie record with 4,051 passing yards…1,394 of which went to Steve Smith. He’s Newton’s #1 target, with tons left in the tank, a guy who used to be a top 3 WR, can still put up those allstar numbers. Between Newton, Mike Tolbert, DeAngelo Williams, and Jonathan Stewart the Panthers have a potent rushing attack which should keep opposing teams from cheating to defend the pass…that and the emergence of Brandon LaFell as a legitimate deep threat could easily translate to another 1000+ yard, 7+ touchdown season from Smith.
Pick 34—Ben Miller
Fred Jackson, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Before a season ending injury midway through the year, Jackson was on pace for a monster fantasy season in 2011. The Bills are looking to have their best season in two decades and with QB Fitzpatrick still growing, expect the veteran Jackson to be a huge part of the offense. Glad to have him as my 2nd RB.
Courtesy: Getty Images
Pick 35—Aric Dickinson
Michael Vick, Quarterback, Philadelphia Eagles
Despite having a “bad” season last year, he was still a top 10 QB. If he can revert back to his 2010, where he led 70% of his fantasy teams to the championship game, this is the steal of the draft in the fourth round.
Pick 36—Luke Woods
Jordy Nelson, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers
Had an unbelievable season last year and with Donald Driver on his last leg and Greg Jennings constantly hurt, look for Nelson to have another monster year. Nelson has been going late in the 3rd round in many mock drafts; he’s a steal for the 6th pick in the 4th round.
Pick 37—Brett Dickinson
Peyton Manning, Quarterback, Denver Broncos
Though a lot has changed for Peyton Manning, if healthy, he is PEYTON MANNING. Good for 3500 yards and 20 touchdowns and that would be a down year for him.
Pick 38—Jim Chaney
Darren Sproles, Running Back, New Orleans Saints
The little guy had more receptions than carries last year and many more yards through the air…but yards are yards, and so are touchdowns and Sproles totaled over 1300 yards from scrimmage and 7 touchdowns last year. With teams keying on Jimmy Graham in the passing game, there’s no reason to think Sproles can’t duplicate his receiving numbers, so if he can pick up a few more carries and another touchdown or two on the ground, this is a great value at the end of the 4th round.
Pick 39—Jeff Powers
Brandon Marshall, Wide Receiver, Chicago Bears
He averaged 85rec and 1000 yards on Miami and now he’s being reunited with cutler who he averaged 103 rec and 1150 yards in 2 seasons with in Den. In the 4th round with those numbers I consider this a steal
Pick 40—Jared Kalish
Dez Bryant, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys
Dez is as physically gifted as they come. If he can stay focused and on the field, he will be a top 10 WR with top 5 potential. Only at age 24, and in his third season, this will be the last time Dez Bryant gets drafted anywhere near the 4th/5th round. We are looking at a perennial top 20 player for years to come.
Round 5
Pick 41—Jared Kalish
Doug Martin, Running Back, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Anyone who says Doug Martin is the next Ray Rice is probably kidding themselves (or more likely very high). That being said, he was hand-picked by Greg Schiano (Rutgers’ ex head coach) at the end of the first round for a reason, to be the lead-back of the Bucs for the foreseeable future. He was not drafted to play behind plodder, LaGarrette Blount. He may not enter the season as the “workhorse back”, but he will likely finish the season as such, and he could lead plenty fantasy teams to the promised land in this run-heavy offense. (Team so far – Foster RB1, S-Jax RB2, Martin RB3, J. Jones WR1, and Bryant WR2)
Pick 42—Jeff Powers
Phillip Rivers, Quarterback, San Diego Chargers
I expect Rivers to get back on track this this after back to back dud years and throw for about 4500 with 30-35 touchdowns and 10 INTs compared to his 30/20 ratio last year.
Pick 43—Jim Chaney
Mike Wallace, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers
All indications are that Wallace will be back with the Steelers before the start of the season and has already been working out on his own to be in shape when the time comes. It’s still a risk, certainly, but if he reports to the team in time, I consider it a steal to get a top 10 WR here in round 5.
Pick 44—Brett Dickinson
Marques Colston, Wide Receiver, New Orleans Saints
The Saints offense was the most proficient in league history last season and can continue that success with most of the pieces still intact. Colston has consistently broken the 1000 yard mark, and with Robert Meachem gone, that is more targets for him to utilize.
Courtesy: Gregoy Shamus/Getty Images
Pick 45—Luke Woods
Antonio Brown, Wide Receiver, Pittsburgh Steelers
Brown is the most complete receiver in the Steelers WR corps. With devastating injuries at running back, the Steelers passing game should be on full display, early and often. Even if Mike Wallace is the true #1, Brown should have a great season.
Pick 46—Aric Dickinson
Antonio Gates, Tight End, San Diego Chargers
He is still the third best tight end in the game
Pick 47—Ben Miller
Ahmad Bradshaw, Running Back, New York Giants
When healthy, Bradshaw is one of the most consistent backs in fantasy. Could easily have 10+ touchdown’s this year, given the way he is used in the red zone.
Pick 48—Andrew Bertram
Reggie Bush, Running Back, Miami Dolphins
Reggie is a solid pick, he’d be even better in a PPR, but still a stud….over 1000 yards on the ground and Miami seems like they will keep him as their “workhorse.” Even though that means only about 200-225 carries, I expect his receptions and receiving yards to be on the rise. He’s a definite possibility for 1500+ total yards and 7+ touchdowns. I’m happy to have him join AP in my backfield…loving my team so far: a top 3 QB, 2 feature backs, and 2 #1 receivers…
Pick 49—Dan Ross
Percy Harvin, Wide Receiver, Minnesota Vikings
Low end number 1 WR in the late 5th? Yes please. The guy is ranked within the top 10-12 in every major publication but people still draft him around 20 for some reason. 1300 total yards and 8 touchdowns in 2011 should have put this guy on everybody’s maps, but perhaps bc only 900 was receiving people seem less excited about him than they should be. If he’s being drafted outside the top 15, your league is doing it wrong.
Pick 50—Mike Fast
Willis McGahee, Running Back, Denver Broncos
Just shy of 1,200 yards last year even with Tebow vulturing goal line touches/touchdowns from him. With Peyton in Denver, the box should be less stacked for McGahee. 1,200-1,300 yards and 8-10 touchdowns is definitely a possibility.
Round 6
Courtesy: Sports Illustrated
Pick 51—Mike Fast
Frank Gore, Running Back, San Francisco 49ers
The starting back on a team that runs, runs, runs and plays defense. Gore plays through injury with incredible consistency. He’s the best offensive player and should get 1,200-1,300 yards and 8 touchdowns along with 400-500 receiving yards and 3-4 receiving touchdowns.
Pick 52—Dan Ross
Jonathan Stewart, Running Back, Carolina Panthers
I’m going conservative here, just making sure I get a healthy RB with potential upside. Stewart is probably a top 8 RB in the game in terms of talent but he’s unfortunately in the games most crowded backfield with Williams, Tolbert, and even QB Newton stealing a large number of touchdowns. You have t imagine that all things being equal, meaning the same number of touchdowns this year as last, that newton will get way less on the ground as the team protects its franchise talent. That should mean more touchdowns for the rest. An injury to the old Williams or touchdown vulture Tolbert should open up scoring opportunities for Stewart and would make him a solid two with one upside. As is he’s a below average 2 but with all the obvious upside you take him and settle for what he is and hope for more.
Pick 53—Andrew Bertram
Miles Austin, Wide Receiver, Dallas Cowboys
In Round 6, I get a WR who in 2009 had 1320 yards and 11 touchdowns, and 1041 yards and 7 touchdowns in 2010, then, battling injury he had 43 Catches for 579 and 7 touchdowns last year in 2011. The Cowboys have a lot to prove and Romo is running out of time to get that championship if he wants to be considered a great QB. In addition to the very productive seasons overall, Austin, is capable of putting together incredible games, which he does frequently that can really win a week for you. Looking at my team, I feel that having a top 3 QB, 2 feature backs and 3 #1 receivers on teams that like to throw. Not a bad start, IMO.
Pick 54—Ben Miller
Eli Manning, Quarterback, New York Giants
Eli has continued to improve year over year as a reliable fantasy QB. With consistent production and durability making him reliable every week, I find more value in him than brother Peyton, Michael Vick, or Philip Rivers, all who were taken earlier in the draft. I’ll gladly take him in the 6th round to compliment the core of my offense.
Pick 55—Aric Dickinson
Denarius Moore, Wide Receiver, Oakland Raiders
He is on the verge of a breakout season in Oakland as there number one wide out.
Pick 56—Luke Woods
Beanie Wells, Running Back, Arizona Cardinals
Best Running back available and before this pick, I only had one feature back, Matt Forte. If Wells can stay healthy and hold off Ryan Williams, he could see high production; especially with Arizona’s inept Quarterbacks.
Pick 57—Brett Dickinson
Vincent Jackson, Wide Receiver, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Not only is the best player on the Bucs offense but one of the best big play threats in the league.
Pick 58—Jim Chaney
Brandon Lloyd, Wide Receiver, New England Patriots
In 2010-11, Lloyd had a breakout season in Denver where he recorded over 1400 receiving yards with Kyle Orton throwing the rock. With the move to NE, where he is now catching passes from Tom Brady (and all accounts are that the two are clicking well), Lloyd has the opportunity to reach those elite level numbers again. I’m not saying this is the Randy Moss of 2007-08, but with guys like Welker and Gronk for defenses to focus on, Lloyd may very well fly under the radar as he flies past D-backs all year.
Pick 59—Jeff Powers
Jeremy Maclin, Wide Receiver, Philadelphia Eagles
R6 P9: Jeremy Maclin (WR Philadelphia Eagles)
After 3 seasons Maclin has been one of the more consistent reliable receivers in the league averaging 60-70 rec. and 850 yards and about 6-7 touchdowns- he was on pace to have his best season last year if he wasn’t hindered by injured. So I figure he is due for a big year as are most eagle players.
Courtesy: Matthew Emmons/US Presswire
Pick 60—Jared Kalish
Aaron Hernandez, Tight End, New England Patriots
Hernandez is not a TE; he is a WR who qualifies at TE. He moves all over the field and takes advantages of mismatches against Linebackers and Safeties on a regular basis. Yes, he does have to compete with Gronk, Welker, and Lloyd for touches, but in this offense there is plenty of love to go around. I personally believe that he is more physically gifted than any of the other “playmakers” on that roster, and could quite possibly lead all NE players not named Tom Brady in fantasy points. In summation, this is a STEAL at the end of the 6th round!
Biggest Steal: Michael Vick
After Vick’s epic season in 2010, the rush to draft him in 2011 was on. So much so, that in many leagues he was drafted 1st overall, following which he had a “disappointing” season. Now, spurned Vick owners the world over are avoiding him like the plague. If you draft Vick, or anyone for that matter, expecting the greatest season of all time you are bound to be disappointed. However, getting top 5-7 QB value from him should be the floor, barring injury, and his upside might be higher than anyone’s. Even in his “disappointing” season last year, he put up a career high in passing yards (3,303). His rushing numbers were actually low for Vick (and high for pretty much every other QB) at 589 yards. While it’s doubtful that they will ever get back up in the 900-1000 range, 600-700 is realistic. His biggest downside last year was that all of his rushing TDs were poached by McCoy having the season of his career. 3-5 rushing TDs, 16-22 passing, combined with 3500-3800 total yards seem like pretty realistic numbers for Vick: amazing value in RD 4.
Biggest Reach: Jordy Nelson
There were many guys I considered here but Nelson gets the title. He was a breakout candidate for many and last year he surely didn’t disappoint. But, from a guy whose previous career highs were 45 RECs, 582 yards, and 2 TDs, his 2011 season seems completely unrepeatable. While he’s got a superstar quarterback in Rodgers throwing him the ball, as many Drew Brees receivers can attest, it can hurt your fantasy numbers. He spreads the wealth and that doesn’t mean Nelson can repeat 2011. If he only puts up 75% of his numbers from last year he’s a solid fantasy pick, but he went before more reliable options like Brandon Marshall and Mike Wallace who both have the same ceiling.
Best Team: Andrew Bertram
I am happy to report that after looking at rounds 1-6, I feel like I have the best team. I have no problem looking at this team and seeing the top QB, top RB, and 3 of the top 5-10 WR. Brees is one of the unquestioned best in the business; both RBs are feature backs and should have very little in the way of competition (once Peterson is 100% healthy); and all 3 receivers are the #1 receiver on their teams, are capable of putting up incredible seasons and have done so in the recent past. The draft is far from over, but so far, I like my chances.
Worst Team: Luke Woods
It seems fitting that the owner of both picks I considered the biggest reaches so far has the team I think is the worst. No offense to Luke, as I’ve said before, you never know how the chips will fall, but his quarterback I have rated somewhere in the middle of the top 10 QBs, his #1 RB is coming off a career year and is severely injury prone and his #2 RB looks like a flop. All three of his receivers are the #2 two option on their teams, and both Nelson and Brown are coming off of career years.
