It’s that time of year again, school supplies are on sale as kids head back to school, plans are being made for that big labor day cookout, and perhaps most important of all, the NFL season is rapidly approaching. Time to get out and buy your Draft Guides, do mock drafts, and get ready to bring home your league’s trophy. We, here at the sports column, are preparing to do the same. In the hope that we can help some of you take the stress of deciding whom to pick and where, we’ve put together a little mock draft of our own. Our first three rounds are here and we’ve got plenty of insight into our picks as well. Following each pick will be a brief (or not so brief) explanation of the selection by the team manager.
Round 1
Courtesy: ESPN
Pick 1—Jared Kalish
Arian Foster, Running Back, Houston Texans
Best running back in the NFL; Shallowest position in the game; Lock for 325+ fantasy points (if healthy) in PPR league. In Standard leagues he is even more valuable. (Note: If you draft Arian Foster, do NOT forget to pick up Ben Tate (if available) in the middle rounds of your league!)
Pick 2—Jeff Powers
Ray Rice, Running Back, Baltimore Ravens
In PPR he could push 325-350pts a season, due to his 74 receptions and 704 receiving yards along with 1300 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns in 2011. This is a no brainer pick; however McCoy is a very close pick afterwards.
Pick 3—Jim Chaney
Aaron Rodgers, Quarterback, Green Bay Packers
The old adage of “take a running back first” is dead and gone. It’s a passing league now and the only guy on the board that is both elite and question free is Rodgers. I can worry about a running back later. The first round is for studs and nobody is more studly then Rodgers.
Pick 4—Brett Dickinson
LeSean McCoy, Running Back, Philadelphia Eagles
McCoy is an absolute steal at pick four as he is the most dynamic running back in the league and only getting better. After last year’s breakout season, McCoy should only build on a performance where he led all backs in touchdowns. With all the weapons on Philly’s offense, no one can fully commit to stopping him or trying to slow him down.
Courtesy: Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images
Pick 5—Luke Woods
Cam Newton, Quarterback, Carolina Panthers
With a full offseason to learn the Offense, Cam should improve upon his record setting rookie year. With this being a weak year for running backs, I’ll take the quarterback who will give me running back stats.
Pick 6—Aric Dickinson
Maurice Jones-Drew, Running Back, Jacksonville Jaguars
After missing out on the top three backs, MJD is the smart pick. He is still the only real option for the Jaguars‘ offense. Though the hold out might set him back, he still led the league in rushing last season.
Pick 7—Ben Miller
Calvin Johnson, Wide Receiver, Detroit Lions
This may be a reach for a non PPR league, but expect another monster season from Johnson in 2012. I would expect similar, if not better numbers to what he offered in 2011 (96 rec, 1600+ yards, and 16 touchdowns). Also, expect a big year from Stafford which will only have a positive impact on #81. If he can avoid the Madden curse, he’ll land in the top 10 for overall points this season.
Pick 8—Andrew Bertram
Drew Brees, Quarterback, New Orleans Saints
Brees set the NFL record for passing yards in 2011 with 5,476. Add to that 46 TDs and you’ve got one of the most consistent superstars in the league the last few years. Many say that losing Sean Peyton will hurt Brees’ numbers this year, but people doubted whether he could produce after his move to The Big Easy…I’ve learned just to trust in his arm.
Pick 9—Dan Ross
Tom Brady, Quarterback, New England Patriots
Brady is the last of the first tier quarterbacks off the board. In your usual draft he’ll be taken a full round ahead of Newton and will likely be the second player selected at the position. At pick #9 he is an absolute steal. Typically I preach waiting on a quarterback in today’s game because the parity in the more than serviceable third tier of quarterbacks is absurd and they can be had several rounds later. However, if you can pick up Brady from pick 6 on, you have to pull the trigger.
Pick 10—Mike Fast
Matthew Stafford, Quarterback, Detroit Lions
Over 5,000 yards passing last season and plays in an offense where he will have to throw it a bunch to stay in games. Fantasy-wise, an elite quarterback with the best fantasy wide receiver in the league.
Round 2
Pick 11—Mike Fast
Rob Gronkowski, Tight End, New England Patriots
Gronk has 27 touchdowns in 27 starts; a match-up nightmare, especially in the red zone.
Pick 12—Dan Ross
Jimmy Graham, Tight End, New Orleans Saints
With Brady in the first, I was of course hoping for Gronk to have the real life best quarterback to tight end connection in the league, but I’m not at all disappointed to get Graham here. Graham’s ceiling is probably higher than Gronk’s anyway. The kid hasn’t been playing football very long and a la Antonio Gates is an athletic freak transitioning his b-ball skills to the NFL, learning as he goes. Which begs the question, if last year was learning then what’s this kid going to do once he puts it all together? Record books meet shredder.
Courtesy: OchoCinco News Network
Pick 13—Andrew Bertram
Adrian Peterson, Running Back, Minnesota Vikings
Probably a controversial pick for many, but a guy who is a legit top 3 stud and is due back for the first game of the year I loved getting him in RD 2. He may play a less than featured role for the first few weeks, but he will be in full force when it counts down the stretch. Averaging 1300+yards and 12+ touchdowns per year, I could potentially have the top quarterback and running back by the end of the year. Could have gone with a stud WR but felt I need to get at least 1 running back in the first two rounds.
Others considered: Larry Fitzgerald, Andre Johnson
Pick 14—Ben Miller
Chris Johnson, Running Back, Tennessee Titans
I’ll take the other CJ with a huge upside in 2012. Most experts have him listed as a top 5 running back this year, and grabbing him in the 2nd round could end up being a steal. Don’t expect another year like he had in 2009 leading all running back’s, but given the progression of the Titans offense, a year similar to 2010 where he had 1300 yards and 11 touchdowns isn’t that farfetched. If only he could get extra fantasy points for beating Usain Bolt in the 40 yard dash…
Pick 15—Aric Dickinson
Larry Fitzgerald, Wide Receiver, Arizona Cardinals
Even with an unstable quarterback situation, Larry still got his numbers last season. Expect more of the same and if one of quarterbacks steps up, this could give me the leading rusher and receiver in the league.
Pick 16—Luke Woods
Matt Forte, Running Back, Chicago Bears
Best running back on the board and a versatile player who has a similar skill set to ray rice. Before his MCL injury last year, Forte was having his best season; hopefully he continues that in 2012.
Pick 17—Brett Dickinson
Darren McFadden, Running Back, Oakland Raiders
McFadden was the leading rusher in the NFL before his injury last season and has the potential to be a top back if he can stay on the field. With an improved passing game for Oakland, with Carson Palmer at quarterback, McFadden could improve on his averages from last year.
Courtesy:Chron.com
Pick 18—Jim Chaney
Andre Johnson, Wide Receiver, Houston Texans
He’s still here? Of course I’ll take one of the 2 most dominant receivers in the game. Barring injury, which is a legit concern with him, he’s basically a lock for 1300 yards and 13 touchdowns.
Pick 19—Jeff Powers
Jamaal Charles, Running Back, Kansas City Chiefs
Coming back from injury and Hillis in the backfield- Am I crazy, nope. Remember when Charles had that awesome season in 2010 that also involved him receiving less than 15 carries per game and averaging 6.4 yards and finished with 1450 yards and 400 yards receiving on 45 catches. I would even go on a limp to say him and Hillis will have a great year.
Pick 20—Jared Kalish
Steven Jackson, Running Back, St. Louis Rams
At the turn in the 2nd round you need to get a solid #2 running back; and who better than perennial top-12 fantasy running back S-Jax? At age 29, this guy is still in prime physical condition and is expected to carry a major load this year (25 carries per game?!). Others Considered: Demarco Murray, Ryan Matthews, Trent Richardson, Doug Martin (honestly looking at that list of running backs with injuries and/or uncertainty, S-Jax feels like the right pick here).
Round 3
Courtesy: CBS Sports
Pick 21—Jared Kalish
Julio Jones, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
My man-crush this season (I’m sure he’s on plenty of your wish lists). This guy is a freak, plain and simple. All of the talent in the world, plan for him to be the focal point of this offense, it is going to be a fun year seeing him break out into a superstar! Others Considered: Nobody! Julio Jones all day long baby!
Pick 22—Jeff Powers
DeMarco Murray, Running Back, Dallas Cowboys
2nd round quality back in the 3rd and my 3rd running back option- yes please!
Pick 23—Jim Chaney
Marshawn Lynch, Running Back, Buffalo Bills
Glad to grab beast mode in the 3rd round. In a year when the running back position is as thin as it’s ever been, I’m glad to have gotten studs at the other big point producing positions first and now I’ll settle for a guy who doesn’t have to split carries. Fine by me.
Pick 24—Brett Dickinson
Michael Turner, Running Back, Atlanta Falcons
With a risky pick in the second round, Turner is the safe pick for 1200 yards and 8 TDs. This ensures me depth at the most valuable position and the hardest to replace in case of injury.
Pick 25—Luke Woods
Roddy White, Wide Receiver, Atlanta Falcons
I’ll take the Falcons true number 1 receiver who has been as consistent as any wide receiver in the league for the last few seasons. Julio Jones may catch the deep balls but White is good for 90/1200/10 every year.
Courtesy: Cleveland.com
Pick 26—Aric Dickinson
Trent Richardson, Running Back, Cleveland Browns
He is the most NFL ready running back to be drafted since Adrian Peterson and should provide production early. The Browns line is underrated and should provide decent lanes for the rookie (who will be the center of the offense with a rookie at quarterback as well).
Pick 27—Ben Miller
Greg Jennings, Wide Receiver, Green Bay Packers
14 running backs have been taken so far, but only the top 4-5 WR have been drafted. Getting a stellar pick like Jennings at this point in the draft solidifies my WR corps with two of the top 5 in fantasy.
Pick 28—Andrew Bertram
A.J. Green, Wide Receiver, Cincinnati Bengals
As a rookie, with a rookie quarterback, on a team just starting to realize they are contenders in the tough AFC North, Green put up 1057 yards and 7 TDs. Now that Marvin Lewis realized the weapons he has on offense, look for Green to improve on last year’s numbers…I’m expecting 1300+ yards and 10+ TDs. He can easily out produce the other 3 WR who went in this round (Roddy and Julio will be fighting over yards and catches and it seems that Jordy Nelson, not Greg Jennings, is Rodgers’ red zone target). Green is clearly the man in Cincinnati and I expect him to be amongst the league leaders in targets this year.
Pick 29—Dan Ross
Ryan Mathews, Running Back, San Diego Chargers
With Tom Brady and Jimmy Graham already in tow giving this team arguably the best quarterback and tight end in the game, it’s time to address running back and WR. Having a first round talent drop to us in late round 3 because of an injury which should cost him 1-2 weeks is impossible to pass up at #29 overall. You take the small risk for the home run payoff. The weakness of this team will not be at quarterback, tight end, or running back. We’re taking WRs late because of the tremendous depth at the position and we’ll see how it unfolds in the end. But with 3 top 15 players to start things off with the easier WR holes left to fill, you’ve got to be thinking championship for my mock squad right now.
Pick 30—Mike Fast
Victor Cruz, Wide Receiver, New York Giants
82 receptions, 1,536 yards (18.7 yards per catch), 9 TD; Eli Manning’s #1 receiver with A+ talent as my first WR is something I’m more than fine with.
Analysis
Biggest Steal: Adrian Peterson
For the last three years, getting Adrian Peterson outside of the first three picks would have been considered the steal of the entire draft in most leagues so getting him in round 2 is mind-blowing. People have doubts about the fact that he tore both the ACL and MCL in his left knee, but continuing to build his reputation as superhuman, Peterson is rewriting the medical books on recovery time and promises to be ready to for week 1. This is a guy who could easily end the year as fantasy’s top player and even if Toby Gerhart starts the first two or three weeks while Peterson is eased back in, he will be at full strength when he’s needed most…playoff time!
Biggest Reach: Cam Newton
While Cam Newton’s rookie season was one for the ages, drafting him 5th overall, ahead of both Drew Brees and Tom Brady seems a little crazy. Not to mention the fact that his ADP right now projects at 17.45, meaning that it looks like Luke could have taken a stud like MJD, Megatron or CJ2K and still been able to snag Newton in round 2. This can be a learning experience for many. Often, we grab up the guy we want early, and say “Well, at least I got him” or “With Newton, I think I’ll have the best QB in the league.” The biggest thing to consider in the draft is value. Am I getting good value with each pick? Am I reaching for a player, or taking the best available? More often than not, taking the best available player will pay off for you.
Best Team: Jim Chaney
Jim surprised me a bit by passing on LeSean McCoy and going for Aaron Rodgers in the first. I usually advocate the running back first policy, especially when one of the top 3 backs in the league are still on the board. But looking back at the first 3 rounds, his team looks the best. He has the top quarterback in the league, a top 3 receiver (when healthy), and the #5 ranked RB from 2011. While I think taking Rodgers before McCoy will burn him in the long run (as he could have 2 top 5 RBs and a top 3 RB and still grab a start quarterback rounds and rounds later (Matt Schaub, for example, is going around pick 107…which is late in round 11 in this draft). But only time will tell.
Worst Team: N/A
After only 3 rounds, picking the worst team is difficult to do. Many teams are choosing to ignore some positions early to focus on getting stars at other positions. However, looking at the draft board so far, the worst team appears to be Mike Fast. His first three picks were an injury prone QB coming off a career year, a tight end who had what could be considered to be an unrepeatable season (not to mention he’s splitting time with another tight end who just signed a 6 year/ $40 million extension), and a receiver who came out of nowhere to put up a season that shocked everyone in the fantasy world on a team where a different player has led the team in receiving each of the last three years. Pair all of those things with the fact that he has yet to draft an RB (the shallowest position there is) puts Mike’s team at the bottom of the power rankings after round 3.
*Rounds 4-6 to come soon*
