Before we get into part 2 of my ridiculous prophecies of fantasy football failure and glory, I’d like to address a remark that last week’s column received. “A reader” (no, I’m not concealing his name for anonymity’s sake, that’s just the moniker he left behind) commented that fantasy sports needed a new angle because everyone keeps churning out prediction articles. He continued on to question why I would give away my strategies and leaves myself open for mockery when my guesses fall flat. Great questions “a reader”, now let me respond.
The short answer: it’s fun. Not good enough for you? Ok, the long answer: it’s really fun. Fantasy football is, at its core, an escape from reality that combines our love of the sport with our instinctual competitive nature. The fact that a multi-billion dollar industry has been created around this concept is a tribute to the American Dream; making money off our ability to consume bottomless amounts of sports statistics. Ain’t life great!
In reference to your specific concerns about strategies and mockery, let me explain. First of all, my predictions are nothing more than my not-so-professional opinion about a player or team. Just because I mention them here, doesn’t mean they have anything to do with my personal drafting strategies. I have commissioner of my league for six years and my competitors know what to expect out of me, so while I appreciate your concern, don’t worry about it.
Am I risking the very little credibility that I currently have by making a bold statement that no one else seems to agree with? Sure. Might it blow up in my face and lead to incessant taunts and ridicule? Absolutely. Wait…why am I doing this again? Oh right, the fun thing. The point is, I don’t take myself seriously enough to be concerned about looking like a fool. The benefits of landing one or more of these predictions so I can hold it over my competitors for years to come, far outweigh the perils of a swing and miss.
So with that out of the way, let’s dive right into the second half of my “10 Big Bold Predictions”.
Courtesy: OG Draft.com
6) Rookie RB Doug Martin (TB) will outperform fellow rookie RB Trent Richardson (CLE). I’ll wait for the laughter to subside before I go on. Done? Ok. Forget about the names for a second and let’s look at the facts. Richardson is likely playing with a rookie QB in Brandon Weeden, an O-line that is dismal (with the notable exception of Joe Thomas), and very few weapons in the passing game meaning defenses will be packing the box like sardines to stop him. Don’t forget that he’ll face the Ravens, Steelers, and Bengals a total of 6 times; not exactly ideal running conditions. Meanwhile, Martin was also drafted in the first round (in case you forgot) and is a good all-around back. He is strong and can pass block and catch balls out of the backfield. He has a QB in Josh Freeman who is poised for a bounce back year with the addition of Vincent Jackson to his arsenal, and fellow newcomer Carl Nix will be smashing people at the line like watermelons at a Gallagher show. We can’t overlook the superior talent of Richardson, or the fact that LeGarrette Blount is still in Tampa Bay, but if Martin takes hold of the starting position, be prepared for a potentially big year from the rookie.
7) Eric Decker is this year’s Victor Cruz, minus the salsa dancing. No position in fantasy football is more unnerving than WR. Studs you draft early average 8 catches a game but only score 3 TDs on the year. Guys whose names are practically unpronounceable burst onto the scene with 3 TDs in one game. And each year, there’s at least one player who comes from relative obscurity to produce at a high level all season. Last year it was Victor Cruz. This year, with the help of Peyton Manning, it’s Eric Decker. Decker was the victim of Tim Tebow’s inaccuracy and his positioning as mainly the slot receiver. This year, he’ll be catching balls from one of the most accurate QBs of all time and he’ll be used more as an outside receiver which plays to his strengths. With Demaryius Thomas garnering most of the attention, if Decker is able to stay healthy, he could produce one of those 1,300 yard, 10 TD seasons that will have him drafted in the top 10 this time next year.
8) Robert Griffin III outperforms Cam Newton. What Kool-Aid have I been drinking? Not Cam’s, that’s for sure. Newton is being projected among the top 5-7 QBs this season depending on who you read, and I think that is ridiculous. Projecting him to finish the season at that level means you are assuming he can repeat his incredible rushing TD performance from last season. It’s just not going to happen. And if you take away the first two games of 2011, when he threw for over 850 yards, he only averaged 228 yards per game with 18 TDs to 13 INTs. So do I expect a Cam-like rookie season from RGIII? Not exactly, though I expect solid numbers. I just think Newton is being extremely over-valued and it should be a close race between these two statistically all year.
9) Jared Cook (TEN) finishes with more fantasy points than Rob Gronkowski (NE). You can’t cure crazy so I’m just gonna keep rolling along here. Is it crazy to say that Cook will outperform the man who had the greatest season in the history of the TE position last year? Maybe. But while this could be considered another “guy being over-valued” prediction like the Cam Newton situation, I’m more interested in the potential of Cook to finally realize his Gronk-like potential. He’s big, strong, and quick and over the final 3 games of last season (where he tallied 335 of his 759 total yards), he became the consistent pass catching TE he had been hyped as. The Titans throw the ball more than people think and with some big league experience under the belt of QB Jake Locker, this could be a big year for Cook.
Courtesy: ESPN
10) Randy Moss returns to fantasy relevance and tops 1000 yards and 8 TDs. We’ve made it to number 10 so it’s time for a flyer. The Niners don’t like to “air it out” very often, Moss is old, and at times, he simply doesn’t seem to care about playing. But here’s the thing, he’s still a physical freak of nature. So if he decides he does care about football again and Jim Harbaugh believes him, this projection could be shockingly low.
Well that is it. My #1 Pick has to be RG3 now…. I was pouring myself a glass of Kool Aid, now I’m chugging the entire pitcher of it!
Pro Football Focus, which is highly regarded among industry professionals, had the Browns 2011 O-line ranked as the 14th best in the league while the Bucs came in 25th. I realize the Bucs have added Carl Nicks (which you spelled wrong by the way — but fact checking in journalism isn’t important or anything), but you forgot to mention the Browns Pro Bowl center, Alex Mack. They also started two very young guards for most of the year last season (Jason Pinkston – a rookie and Shawn Lauvao – second year) who will both be improved this year. They also added Mitchell Schwartz, who some analysts called the best pure right tackle in this year’s draft, to fill that hole. So I don’t understand how the adjective “dismal” applies to that line. But you’re the guy writing on the website.
Why was my comment deleted before? Because I had a different opinion than the writer?
Sorry that was a mistake… The site gets a lot of spam and was lumped in by accident, please feel free to repost your comment and I will be sure to not allow this to happen again…We really want to hear all voices and definitely do not mind that you support a different opinion than any of our writers including, myself…The Sports Column Creator, Brett Dickinson
Thanks Brett. BTW I’m the Paul from Sean’s fantasy league. I like your site. I do something a little different – more Cleveland sports based. Check it out if you want. It’s more humorous than anything else: http://www.Byebyebernie.wordpress.com.
Paul- First, thank you for the comment. We at The Sports Column love to hear different opinions on our columns, which are subjective in nature, so that a discussion can be formed. I notice the typo which will be corrected, good catch.
Now as far as your comment’s point, I remain in disagreement with your reasoning. First of all, there are too many websites to name that provide rankings of O-Lines, so if you’d like, I can go find several others that will have completely different ranking than what you provided (rotowire.com for example has the Bucs ranked ahead of the Browns). When I refer to the line, I refer to all aspects of it, not just the 5 guys you see starting each week. The Browns do possess some young talent there which should continue to improve, but their depth is almost non-existent. So what would happen to the line if one of those starters went down? Just think about that.
So thank you again for your comment and discussion, I appreciate your opinion, even if I don’t agree with it or the way in which you gave it.
Jim- Questioning the depth of the Browns O-line is fine. But you don’t do that in your column. You call their line dismal with the exception of Joe Thomas and failed to mention their Pro-Bowl center, Alex Mack. If you would have said, “The Browns line is an injury away from being in bad shape.” I could have accepted that. But the reality is, their line isn’t dismal. And Profootballfocus isn’t a regular roto-type stats website. It’s one of the most respected football statistics websites available and is used by NFL teams as well as the football writers like Peter King.
If you compare the two o-lines, each has a premiere player (Joe Thomas and Carl Nicks), each has a one-time pro bowler (Alex Mack in 2011 and Donald Penn in 2010). Their depth after their starters is very similar (Jamon Meredith who is on his 6th team in four season, Cody Wallace who is on his 6th team in 5 years and Demar Dotson who has started 2 games during his four years with the Bucs). Their inexperience is almost exactly the same as the back-ups for the Browns. (Oniel Cousins, John Greco and Ryan Miller).
So what if the Bucs have an injury (or another one since Davin Joseph is already injured)? Think about that?
I don’t even disagree with your claim about Martin being a better fantasy back than T-Rich. I took Martin in every one of my fantasy leagues because he will be running in Greg Schiano’s run-first offense and no one else is taking carries from him after Blount’s terrible showing in the offseason.
My only beef with any of your column is the lack of research regarding the Browns line before calling them dismal. And if Carl Nicks is going to be smashing people like a weak and outdated metaphor … what exactly is Joe Thomas going to be doing?
Paul,
I suppose we’ll simply have to agree to disagree on my take on the Browns’ O-line vs. the Bucs’. I appreciate that you are a Browns’ fan and therefore see them in a different light perhaps. You are entitled to your opinion and I respect that.
That being said, after reading your fantasy football rules article on your blog, I suggest that you not throw stones; if you know what I mean.