Fantasy Football 2012: Big Bold Predictions

If you’re like me, fantasy football falls just below your wife, kids, and breathing on the importance scale this time of year.  It consumes around 87% of your brain, 91% of your internet usage, and 100% of your wife’s annoyance tolerance.  The terms “Mock Draft”, “Points Per Reception”, and “TD Vulture” make you light up like a kid on Christmas morning.

A new fantasy football season brings hope and possibility for redemption or confidence in a repeat.  It also brings some awesomely creative team names like “ABC, it’s easy as RGIII” and “Somewhere over the Dwayne Bowe”.  As training camps get under way in earnest across the NFL, we as fantasy football owners get serious about our preparation for the upcoming season.  I’m sure you’ve already refreshed your memory with the 2011 stats of all 1,696 players in the NFL.  Charted their passes, rushes, receptions, yards, TDs, fumbles, tackles, sacks, interceptions, penalties, YAC, etc.  Familiarized yourself with all 32 NFL team’s schedules and potential depth charts.  Wait, you haven’t graphed a 3-year rolling forecast of Sebastian Janikowski’s average number of FG attempts and distances?  Looks like somebody’s behind the 8-ball.

As the fantasy sports industry continues to grow, we as fantasy addicts are saturated with a deluge of predictions, projections, and rankings every year.  This year is no different as major sports websites like ESPN, Yahoo, CBSSports, and The Bleacher Report have all posted their initial player rankings.  These will change as we move through training camps and the preseason, and we as fantasy football owners have the uber enjoyable task of weeding through them all to create what we believe is the most accurate prediction of how players will perform this year.

As part of my fantasy football coverage of the 2012 season, I’d like to start you out with a little fun today, before getting into the nitty gritty of things as the season nears.  So today, I am pleased to give you part 1 of my 10 Big, Bold Predictions for the 2012 fantasy football season.  Let’s do it.

Note: All predictions are based on ESPN standard league scoring format.

Drew Brees (helmet2helmet.net)

1) The highest scoring player in Fantasy Football for 2012 will be: Drew Brees.  Ok, I’m not sure how bold this prediction is, but let’s start slow and build from here.  With a new deal inked and the cards stacked against the Saints, I believe Brees puts up another spectacular statistical season.  Most projections have Aaron Rodgers taking this title, but I have a hard time believing he will exceed, or even match, the TD-INT ratio he put up last year.  With Sean Payton watching the season from his couch, the Saints’ success hinges on Brees’ abilities and I believe he will take on the challenge and surpass Rodgers in total points.

2) Peyton Manning will throw for at least 4,500 yards and 32 TDs and will finish as the #6 QB.  ESPN’s preseason rankings have Manning at 9 among QBs with guys like Cam Newton, Tony Romo, and little brother Eli among those ranked higher.  It’s hard to not be guarded when predicting Manning’s success, or failure, as he enters his first season with Denver after missing all of 2011.  But with a solid running game and aerial weapons that, while not elite, show promise, I have no problem taking Peyton in the 5^th round of my draft (which is where he has been going in early mocks).

3) Both Matthew Stafford and Calvin Johnson will not finish among the top 5 at their positions.  Last year, I predicted a down year for Megatron (if you stop reading this column now, I’ll understand).  Obviously that prediction did not pan out, but perhaps it simply came a year too early.  This QB-WR combo probably won you your league last year, but there is no way they repeat that performance.  I’m guessing neither guy plays all 16 games and the shaky O-line and lack of running game will catch up to this high-flying duo.

4) Ryan Mathews finishes the season as a top 5 fantasy RB.  On the surface, this doesn’t seem all that bold.  In fact, Mathews is currently ranked 6 in ESPN preseason rankings.  But after multiple underwhelming seasons, and a significant injury history, it would be easy to pencil him in as a RB2 level player at best.  But Mike Tolbert is gone from SD, leaving only an aging Ronnie Brown to vulture TDs.  Also, Mathews 4.9 yards per carry last season were tops among backs with over 220 touches.  Don’t forget his ability to catch balls out of the backfield as well.  All this to say that Mathews will be your stud RB1 at the end of the season, no matter where you draft him.

Tim Tebow (Courtesy: ESPN)

5) Tim Tebow scores more fantasy points than Mark Sanchez.  You didn’t think I could do a “bold predictions” piece without mentioning Tebow, did you?  Look, you know the deal in NY.  The Sanchize will be the Jets’ starting quarterback in week 1.  He may even end the season as their man under center.  But Tebow will play; whether it’s at QB, RB, TE, kick returner, place kicker, or the guy that runs out and grabs the tee off the field after a kickoff, and he will rack up fantasy points along the way.  Will he supplant Sanchez as the starter at some point?  Who knows?  What I do know is Tebow is a fantasy monster when he’s on the field and the people of NY want him on the field.  You do the math.

Part 2 of the “10 Big, Bold Predictions of 2012” will be coming soon.  Stay tuned!